The numbers on 1st quarter 2010 fund raising have been in for a number of weeks now and now I will add my perspective on the numbers.
Let’s recap on who earned what
Boyd $19,305
Hurt $101,109
Feda $25,086
Ferrin $??? The FEC still isn’t showing his report.
McKelvey $13,750
McPadden $29,556
Verga $31,523
Total money raised in the 5th District $220,329.
Total raised by the Establishment (Hurt and Boyd -already elected to office) $120,414.
Total raised by the rest of the field $99,915.
The Establishment candidates raised about 20% more money than the others. Nearly half of funds raised went to candidates who weren’t already in bed with the GOP. I think this is significant as is shows what the mood of the 5th district is.
If we isolate Hurt alone and add Boyd to the rest of the group, the numbers look like this…. Hurt $101,109…….the rest $119,220.
The field raised about 20% more than Hurt. This says to me that most folks would rather have anyone rather than Hurt. And those folks are right that Hurt won’t be able to win against Perriello. We’ll cover the Goode angle another day.
21 Comments
contrary to what some might think, to beat Perriello, we will need the support & political “juice” of everyone, even those you say are “in bed with the GOP”.
Hurt doesn’t have the support of the grass roots volunteers and if he wins the primary this will be a big problem for him this fall.Not to mention Hurt is the ONLY candidate that WILL bring out a indy like Clark/Goode that will give the election to Perriello. Has anyone forgotten Scott Brown ?
What? This doesn’t make sense. 1st, it seems odd that you would include Boyd as “The Establishment.” Simply holding an elected position makes you “The Establishment?” And I don’t get what you are talking about “in bed with the GOP”… they are running for the GOP nomination, so OF COURSE they’re likely to be “in bed with the GOP.” All of the candidates are “in bed with the GOP”, otherwise they wouldn’t be running for the GOP nomination.
Next, “The field raised about 20% more than Hurt. This says to me that most folks would rather have anyone rather than Hurt.” What? The rest of the candidates put together only raised $18K more dollars than Hurt alone? That does not indicate that most folks would rather have someone else. It’s faulty logic for a couple of reasons. 1) The amount of money does not equal the number of donors. Most money does not equal most people. 2) It doesn’t stand to reason that a Boyd donor prefers any of the other candidates over Hurt. Nor a Feda donor prefers any of the other candidates over Hurt. Nor a McPadden donor prefers any of the other candidates over Hurt, etc. Hurt’s not my first choice, but I’d rather have him than a handful of the other current candidates. 3) Hurt’s still the number 1 candidate individually in fundraising, by a laaaarge margain. Unless people coalesce behind a single different candidate, it’s foolish to say that “most people don’t want Hurt.”
Next, “And those folks are right that Hurt won’t be able to win against Perriello.” No discussion or explanation. No analysis. Saying something over and over isn’t the same as making it true.
I’m afraid to say that I think it’s nigh time this blog meets its shutters.
Boyd is already in office, therefore he is Establishment. How long has he been a Supervisor for Albemarle County? 8 years now? He might not have all the ties to the Republican Party that Hurt does, but he is Establishment.
In bed with the GOP implies that they get their marching orders from higher up and are coerced and encouraged to toe the party line.
We’ve seen enough reasons why Hurt can’t beat Perriello, why do I need to flog that dead horse again? See Will’s post above. Get out there and talk to folks, they don’t want Hurt.
A ridiculous sentiment.
So you would call someone like Marco Rubio “The Establishment?” What about Ron Paul? Just because you’re elected does not mean you’re “The Establishment.”
There is such a thing as fighting from the inside.
Vawatchdog why don’t you do a poll so we can get a online take of the 5th district race.
Not Neff, you are 100% right! VaWatchdog is a paid blog-mouth of Verga and gang; and thusly will say anything to hurt Hurt (no pun), LOL! Seriously, though, his reasoning level is right up there with the most irresponsible of blog-owners that I’ve ever seen.
Bold accusations and unfounded conclusions will not change the fact that Hurt will definitely win the primary, re-establish “open and public” connections with the RCCC and the Young Guns, and then proceed to rally a significant win against someone who wants the USA to follow the example of Greece economically!
The pure genius of his campaign thus far is totally amazing to any master of current American politics and will be shown to be so once the tally is totaled in November.
VaWatchdog, I truly hope you continue this blog after Verga loses and especially through the general election so that then I can show you point by point, action after action, lack-of-action after lack-of-action, wrong-assumption after wrong-assumption how you missed one of the best-run congressional campaigns that has ever been run!
I agree this post is bogus for a variety of reasons but VAPatriot’s quote about Hurt’s campaign so far being “pure genius” and that he/she is a “master of current American politics” is equally laughable. I may not be a master of politics, but I do consider myself a student of it. I don’t see how it’s genius to allow a campaign to be painted as “situationally” conservative; I don’t see how raising $101k when others in Virginia in crowded fields are able to bring in dollars is genius; I don’t see how taking months to formulate a reasonable answer to the Warner tax vote was genius; I don’t see how it’s genius to think that Perriello is going to be easy to beat with 7:1 cash advantage and as someone who’s shown he’s a pretty damn good campaigner (beating a guy who’d never won by less than 19% ain’t all luck).
But that’s just me. I’m no Jedi Political master.
Are all comments critical of the post moderated, or just mine?
One thing that was not mentioned is that out of the $29,000 that McPadden raised almost $11,000 went into his own or his family’s pockets.
Check out this link to his FEC report.
http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/dcdev/forms/C00466730/463208/sb/ALL
This blog is simply grasping at straws at this point. This post is insanely delusional. I understand you dont like Hurt, but to say that because 6 people running for office raised more than 1 means that people dont want Hurt to win is illogical. The fund raising numbers show that Hurt has command of his race from a financial perspective and the others are playing catch up.
From a financial perspective McKelvey has the most money on hand by far.
But the fewest actual donors (excepting also-rans such as Ferrin)?
Unfortunately, this post only addressed cash-on-hand, which is misleading. The real way to look at these numbers is receipts less disbursements, which garners cash-on-hand, yet debt must be subtracted from this number. So, with this formula (R-Di=CoH; CoH-De=$) in mind, these are the true numbers of the candidates (according to the FEC) as of 3/10:
Boyd: 67,214 – 48,110 – 11,000= $8,104
Hurt: 394,568 – 183,589 – 0= $210,979
McKelvey: 31,950 – 72,989 – 500,000= -$541,039
McPadden: 247,734 – 47,748 – 208,750= -$2,899
Morton: 52,196 – 44,284 – 9,000= -$1,087
Verga: 319,128 – 137,734 – 213,889= -$32,495
With looking at these numbers, all of the candidates, save Hurt and Boyd, are underwater. McKelvey’s numbers are skewed on the FEC’s site, but his cash-on-hand is far less his debt.
As far as ability to raise funds, Hurt has received money from 352 donors. Some my be skeptical to the geographical locations of these donors, yet most of them are in the district. Also, most of the other candidates have staked their own money in the campaign. If any of these candidates win the nomination, they will already be in the hole, financially speaking.
Finally, no one really knows why an independent would enter any race, let alone this one. Speculating is a dangerous business in politics. If you really want Perriello to win in November, keep on with the gloom and doom regarding “establishment” candidates. Find fault with the issues and be constructive. This is the only way conservatives will win the 5th District.
Didn’t McPadden,McKelvey, and Verga loan each of their campaigns money that could be given back if they don’t win the primary ?
This is true. Yet if the candidates spend more than they gave to their campaigns, they do not get this money back.
We have a indy in the race now Jeff Clark and my guess is he can find just enough to spoil things for Hurt.Don’t forget Virgil only lost by 727 votes.
Yes, I do understand the concept that every vote counts. Mr Clark is an idealist, which is nice, yet he has no realistic chance of winning. Why not work with Mr Hurt or any of the other campaigns instead of serving as an obstacle? Mr Hurt is closer to what conservatives want than Mr Perriello; why guarantee victory for the incumbent? How did you react when Mr Perot ran in 1996? I’m sure you really enjoyed Mr Clinton for those years.
While I believe that the de facto two party system is not the best, it is what we have to deal with at this point in time. Even though the sentiments that the Tea Party-ers are embodied across the country, state, and district, there is no unified front. Reform of the Republican Party is possible.
It is my belief that Mr Clark should work with the nominee instead of potentially sinking the election.
- As a side note, does anyone know for a fact why Mr Clark does not like Mr Hurt?
“The most important guarantee of the constitution is the right to life. There was a specific reason our founders listed life first even among the three central guarantees. The founders believed, as I do, that the primary purpose of government is to protect innocent life. –Jim McKelvey”
Uhhh… the Constitution?
An important question seems to be whether McKelvey will actually spend much of the money he’s loaned to his campaign or just let it sit there and take it back after the primary.
If he actually spends to go up on television and set up a get out the vote operation, he might have a shot. Otherwise, it’s just a bait and switch move.
In the last week i have seen alot of campaign signs for McPadden and McKelvey actually in peoples yards not stuck beside road signs and in road ditches like Hurt is doing.